1. That label given to all the forces and conditions which are insufficiently known or understood to predict the outcome of of an event with absolute certainty.
2. The universal force which to differing degrees may cause the outcome to differ in two absolutely identical events.
The second definition of chance is difficult to pin down and typically defined in mathematic or engineering terms. That may be one reason that the first is typically preferred. However, the accuracy of these definitions is not a matter of preference. They have deep implications on our world view giving them great importance from philosophical and religious perspectives.
I am a strong believer that after this period of mortal trial we will all rise from the dead to assume a state of glorious physical perfection. It seems natural that the first definition of chance would be correct. At that time when all mysteries are revealed to us, the chance bin would be left empty. It is comforting to imagine perfect predictability
I also believe that God is bound by natural laws. I have no uneasiness with the omnipotence paradox raised by Averroes that God could not make a rock so big that he could could not lift it or in Homer Simpson's terms, a burrito so hot that he could not eat it. The scriptures give the example that God cannot lie and that if he changed or interfered with our agency or waivered in his principles he would cease to be God.
In his omnipotence, God knows how to use natural laws to his advantage rather than to be held back by them. I imagine that under the second definition chance could be one such law that God knows how to work with.
My wife raised the example that when God started to create our world he had unorganized matter to build with. Chance may be the force that determined the distribution of matter before God began to organize it.
As a statistician, I studied how to account for chance and even leverage it to get the outcome I want. With this training it is easier for me to see how God could control for it perfectly.
One common argument against chance being a universal force is that it would mean that God could not know the outcome of all things. As a Latter-day Saint I believe that all of time is visible to God. His perspective is removed from the obscurity of living singly in the present. He sees all events laid out beforehand.
As I've frequently had to argue about free will, foreknowledge does not imply fore choice. Gods knowledge of the outcome does not require that he chose it.
In casinos the house controls the odds in such a way that even though the outcome is up to chance, the house always wins.
Imagine a poker game where one of the players knows what cards all the other players have and how they plan to use them. With even a really crappy hand, that player could be certain to win, even though he did not deal the cards or choose what the other players would do.
Albert Einstein said that God doesn't roll dice. I believe he might, but if he does, he wins no matter what number comes up.
The scriptures are full of examples where God starts out with a poor hand and still leads his followers to victory!
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